Analysis of factors associated with the first lumpy skin disease outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in different regions of Thailand.

Introduction: Thailand experienced a nationwide outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in 2021, highlighting the need for effective prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to identify herd-level risk factors associated with LSD outbreaks in beef cattle herds across different regions of Thailand. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in upper northeastern, northeastern, and central regions, where face-to-face interviews were conducted with farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the factors associated with LSD outbreaks. A total of 489 beef herds, including 161 LSD outbreak herds and 328 non-LSD herds, were investigated. Results and discussion: Results showed that 66% of farmers have operated beef herds for more than five years. There were very few animal movements during the outbreak period. None of the cattle had been vaccinated with LSD vaccines. Insects that have the potential to act as vectors for LSD were observed in all herds. Thirty-four percent of farmers have implemented insect control measures. The final mixed effect logistic regression model identified herds operating for more than five years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-2.53) and the absence of insect control management on the herd (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.29-3.25) to be associated with LSD outbreaks. The implementation of insect-vector control measures in areas at risk of LSD, especially for herds without vaccination against the disease, should be emphasized. This study provides the first report on risk factors for LSD outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in Thailand and offers useful information for the development of LSD prevention and control programs within the country's context.

Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Thailand from 2011 to 2018.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important animal diseases hindering livestock production in Thailand. In this study, a temporal and spatial analysis at the subdistrict level was performed on FMD outbreak reports in Thailand from 2011 to 2018. Risk factors associated with FMD outbreaks were furthermore investigated using generalized estimating equations. The results showed that the incidence of FMD outbreaks was the highest in 2016 and was affected by season, with a peak in FMD outbreaks occurring in the rainy-winter season, during October to December. FMD outbreaks were mostly distributed in small clusters within a few subdistricts. Some high-risk areas with repeated outbreaks were detected in the central regions. Risk factors, including the increase of subdistrict's size of the dairy population, beef population or pig population, the low percentage of forest area, subdistricts in the provinces adjacent to Malaysia, the presence of a livestock market and the occurrence of an FMD outbreak in a neighbouring subdistrict in the previous month significantly increased the odds of having an FMD outbreak. The increase in proximity to the nearest subdistrict with an FMD outbreak in the previous month decreased the odds of having FMD outbreaks. This study helped to identify high-risk areas and periods of FMD outbreaks in Thailand. Together with the identified risk factors, its results can be used to optimize the FMD control programme in Thailand and in other countries having a similar livestock industry and FMD situation.

The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Dog Owners on Dog Rabies Control in Thailand.

Rabies is a deadly zoonotic disease responsible for almost 60,000 deaths each year, especially in Africa and Asia including Thailand. Dogs are the major reservoirs for rabies virus in these settings. This study thus used the concept of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) to identify socioeconomic factors that contribute to the differences in the canine rabies occurrences in high and low-risk areas which were classified by a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Multistage sampling was then applied to designate the study locations and a KAP-based questionnaire was used to retrieve data and relevant perspectives from the respondents. Based on the responses from 476 participants living across four regions of Thailand, we found that the knowledge of the participants was positively correlated with their behaviors but negatively associated with the attitudes. Participants who are male, younger, educated at the level of middle to high school, or raising more dogs are likely to have negative attitudes but good knowledge on rabies prevention and control whereas farmers with lower income had better attitudes regardless of their knowledge. We found that people in a lower socioeconomic status with a lack of knowledge are not willing to pay at a higher vaccine price. Public education is a key to change dog owners' behaviors. Related authorities should constantly educate people on how to prevent and control rabies in their communities. Our findings should be applicable to other countries with similar socioeconomic statuses.

The Effectiveness of a Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Control Programme in Thailand 2008⁻2015: Case Studies and Lessons Learned.

Three Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks in northern Thailand that occurred during the implementation of the national FMD strategic plan in 2008⁻2015 are described to illustrate the lessons learned and to improve the prevention and control of future outbreaks. In 2008, during a FMD outbreak on a dairy farm, milk delivery was banned for 30 days. This was a part of movement management, a key strategy for FMD control in dairy farms in the area. In 2009, more than half the animals on a pig farm were affected by FMD. Animal quarantine and restricted animal movement played a key role in preventing the spread of FMD. In 2010, FMD infection was reported in a captive elephant. The suspected source of virus was a FMD-infected cow on the same premises. The infected elephant was moved to an elephant hospital that was located in a different province before the diagnosis was confirmed. FMD education was given to elephant veterinarians to promote FMD prevention and control strategies in this unique species. These three cases illustrate how differences in outbreak circumstances and species require the implementation of a variety of different FMD control and prevention measures. Control measures and responses should be customized in different outbreak situations.

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.

Use of epidemiologic risk modeling to evaluate control of foot-and-mouth disease in southern Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impacts of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and various FMD control programs in southern Thailand. ANIMALS: A native population of 562,910 cattle and 33,088 buffalo as well as 89,294 animals legally transported into southern Thailand. PROCEDURES: A quantitative risk assessment was used to ascertain the probability of FMD introduction, and an intrinsic dynamic model was used to assess impacts. Value for the transmission rate (beta) was estimated. Five scenarios created to assess the impacts of nonstructural protein (NSP) testing, mass vaccination, and culling were examined. Impacts were assessed through an examination of the estimated annual cumulative incidence (ACI) of FMD. The ACIs of various scenarios were compared by use of the Tukey Studentized range technique. RESULTS: beta was estimated at 0.115. Approximately 35,000 cases of FMD would be expected from the baseline situation. A 30% reduction of ACI was detected with the introduction of NSP antibody testing. Prophylactic vaccination resulted in an 85% reduction of ACI. Concurrent use of NSP antibody testing and vaccination reduced the ACI by 96%, and the addition of an eradication policy resulted in a slightly greater decrease in the ACI (98%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The study used epidemiologic models to investigate FMD control interventions. Results suggested that vaccination has more impact than the use of NSP testing. Use of the NSP test reduced ACI during peak seasons, whereas vaccination diminished the underlying incidence. The best mitigation plan was an integrated and strategic use of multiple control techniques.

Avian influenza, domestic ducks and rice agriculture in Thailand.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused by H5N1 viruses has become a global scale problem which first emerged in southern China and from there spread to other countries in Southeast and East Asia, where it was first confirmed in end 2003. In previous work, geospatial analyses demonstrated that free grazing ducks played critical role in the epidemiology of the disease in Thailand in the winter 2004/2005, both in terms of HPAI emergence and spread. This study explored the geographic association between free grazing duck census counts and current statistics on the spatial distribution of rice crops in Thailand, in particular the crop calendar of rice production. The analysis was carried out using both district level rice statistics and rice distribution data predicted with the aid of remote sensing, using a rice-detection algorithm. The results indicated a strong association between the number of free grazing ducks and the number of months during which second-crop rice harvest takes place, as well as with the rice crop intensity as predicted by remote sensing. These results confirmed that free grazing duck husbandry was strongly driven by agricultural land use and rice crop intensity, and that this later variable can be readily predicted using remote sensing. Analysis of rice cropping patterns may provide an indication of the location of populations of free grazing ducks in other countries with similar mixed duck and rice production systems and less detailed duck census data. Apart from free ranging ducks and rice cropping, the role of hydrology and seasonality of wetlands and water bodies in the HPAI risk analysis is also discussed in relation to the presumed dry season aggregation of wild waterfowl and aquatic poultry offering much scope for virus transmission.

Free-grazing ducks and highly pathogenic avian influenza, Thailand.

Thailand has recently had 3 epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI); virus was again detected in July 2005. Risk factors need to be identified to better understand disease ecology and assist HPAI surveillance and detection. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of HPAI outbreaks in relation to poultry, land use, and other anthropogenic variables from the start of the second epidemic wave (July 2004-May 2005). Results demonstrate a strong association between H5N1 virus in Thailand and abundance of free-grazing ducks and, to a lesser extent, native chickens, cocks, wetlands, and humans. Wetlands used for double-crop rice production, where free-grazing duck feed year round in rice paddies, appear to be a critical factor in HPAI persistence and spread. This finding could be important for other duck-producing regions in eastern and southeastern Asian countries affected by HPAI.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1, Thailand, 2004.

In January 2004, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype was first confirmed in poultry and humans in Thailand. Control measures, e.g., culling poultry flocks, restricting poultry movement, and improving hygiene, were implemented. Poultry populations in 1,417 villages in 60 of 76 provinces were affected in 2004. A total of 83% of infected flocks confirmed by laboratories were backyard chickens (56%) or ducks (27%). Outbreaks were concentrated in the Central, the southern part of the Northern, and Eastern Regions of Thailand, which are wetlands, water reservoirs, and dense poultry areas. More than 62 million birds were either killed by HPAI viruses or culled. H5N1 virus from poultry caused 17 human cases and 12 deaths in Thailand; a number of domestic cats, captive tigers, and leopards also died of the H5N1 virus. In 2005, the epidemic is ongoing in Thailand.